I have conducted my research with assumptions and hypothetical data on the merits of lockdown and period to consider lockdown in India. I have limited resources, and I studied this for the past three days in my IIMA library. These are a few of my insights that I thought of sharing with my blog readers. They might not be accurate, but if statistical models are conducted in those directions with large data sets, they might give a broader perspective on decision-making criteria that could be beneficial in most influential parameters.
I considered the demographics’ parameters, effective days needed for breaking the virus chain, lockdown parameters, and economic value.
I see the following are merits of the lockdown.
I presume the government of India has considered all alternatives in very depth.
I see and hope for a favorable decision. I am expecting a solid lockdown of at least 3.5 months from Friday or Saturday.
This means all the expenses for running the country during the lockdown period can be handled positively by the government.
I saw three powerful reasons for 3.5 months of lockdown.
They are virus covid variant virulent through magnificent methods that an individual or authority cannot trace to a location.
See, a covid variant can have three variants. And all three variants have a different separate method of spread. Now By imposing strict lockdown can break the primary chain of covid spread in 15 days. But breaking the secondary or third-degree chains is not possible in 15 days.
What are these secondary or third-degree chains? They are that rapid spread and mutation within the introductory period.
If a mutation happened on the third or sixth day, it creates a secondary chain of spread.
This means every mutation creates secondary, third, or further chains.
So what we are trying to concentrate on out is to stop the primary chain. But by the time the primary chain is stopped, secondary and third chains are already initiated. So how do we break these other chains only through probability?
So I did some studies that might not be deep enough at IIMA Library, and I found in my studies confidential that can be experimented with by others.
It takes five additional days to break 30 % of secondary chains after 15 days.
It takes another 16 days to break 73 % of third or fourth value chains.
But if we calculate the population statistics of hypothetical estimations and further prone to errors, I saw a degree of breaking in other chains are possible only by tried and tested methods of 105 days of stringent lockdown.
Everybody might question, but I have taken only hypothetical values in calculations. Procedures of calculations are well known to professionals in all fields.
It was coming to the economic impact of this lockdown. It has five different layers.
The first layer is the percentage of those whose productivity quotient is either affected usually or minimally. Underline the productivity quotient in economic value. These layers are the most affected people in India, which is a developing economy. With little learning and upskilling and taking effective measures. Lockdown might affect them mentally and psychologically, but the strict lockdown will save their life. They constitute a significant portion of Eighty percent of the population. You might be wondering about their livelihood, their income level, and their living standards. But the truth they are the most affected people in the country, and the average income of those people are less than 8600 Rs/month. Let me be honest these are hypothetical calculations based on available data to me at IIMA Library. These are the most downward-looking people who should be protected first. Can we protect them with vaccination? Highly impossible. The truth is vaccines of higher efficiency are yet under trial, and let’s not believe people who promise vaccination to all. Just it is impossible to impossible to believe their words. All those who promise vaccination to 120 crore people do not understand either logistics or complications or hiding the facts or telling lies. Unless more effective vaccines are produced under research and trials, it is impossible to believe these people’s lies. Understand if we vaccinate certain conditions of ambiguity to 130 crore people who are a necessity in probability, it means we are not effectively planning the resources.
Suppose I calculate the cost of vaccination, logistics, and implementation for 130 crore people with hypothetical data. In that case, it could simply be more economic burden than the economic burden to give basic amenities to 51 % population for two months. So this calculation is done with few assumptions under productivity constraints. What are those productivity constraints? It is in one direction, imposes lockdown on the productivity and restructures layers of the population and at the same time allow businesses to do operations. It means this if we impose lockdown and travel restrictions on all productive layers of the population, then it would be unimaginable damage to the economy.
But if we start segregating the data and providing exceptions to businesses that perform well on some scaling parameters that will not become restrictive to economic growth.
Let’s say, in the name of lockdown, we restrict the movement of a highly productive individual who is about to generate a degree of 50 percent growth in his positional value. The cost of restricting his movement will affect the economic dividend by at least 150 %.
Did you see how I am suggesting to plan? I say 80 % of the population whose productivity factor can be the same or with a bit of variant should be provided immediate assistance through government services, benefits, and government can impose strict lockdown.
Within the 20 % based on essential factors which are done already, we should not restrict those people who generate economic value by different methods which cannot manage their productivity by upskilling such as zoom. These categories whose productivity cannot be the same through the upskilling need to be provided enough infrastructure within limits to allow them to travel and conduct businesses.
If these income levels are restricted along with all others in the same way by only evaluating essential factors, then economies will belong into the deepest troubles.
Let me come back to 105 days of strict lockdown. How do we need to implement what is known to authorities? I am suggesting a new is an economic dividend whose productivity cannot be upskilled due to zoom or strict restrictions. They should be given special permissions to conduct their businesses effectively.
In my studies with hypothetical data with some assumptions, I found in India; if we restrict the strict lockdown for 105 days, it would be possible to contain the virus from the further spread by at least 96%.
Since ours is a highly densely populated and still a developing country by supporting 80% of those identified population who in India can support at an income level of 8600 Rs/month through different mechanisms which are possible, it will have a relatively more minor impact, as much as nearly only 2% of GDP.
But if we decide to continue temporary lockdowns, we will not be able to break the chains. Second, the pain of loss in those who get contaminated due to close neighborhood density would be impossible. And last, it would be lies to promise medication to all 130 crore people in the next few months and fail to keep that promise. And it is also not wise to medicate everyone with whatever we have in our medical situation. I do not know if it can cure other variants. And then again, when more research under process brings substantial results, then again promising new medication to again 130 crore people. By this time of all these procedures, the economic loss would be substantial and since lockdown isn’t imposed under the false promise of medicating everyone. The virus spreads at a rapid speed. Then by the time new research is out, the loss of lives would be painful.
So this is my suggestion: not to hurt anyone but the progressive way in the direction of best results to tackle the problem in India through effective measures by probabilistic analysis of managing best efficient outcome in available constraints by mapping the data.
Sources of data used in calculations are confidential, and I have taken it from the IIMA library.
With best regards
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